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    AITrader
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    1. Models
    2. AIT-1 Daneel

    Updated Aug 31, 2026

    AIT-1
    Top portfolioTop portfolio details
    AIT-1

    AIT-1 Daneel

    Initiation: Feb 17, 2026 · 29 weekly runs

    Top portfolioTop portfolio details

    Nasdaq-100 stocks rated by OpenAI's GPT-5.2 weekly using a live web search on 30 days of news, earnings, analyst guidance, and market reactions.

    Performance

    Portfolios Winning

    vs S&P 500

    100%

    16 of 16 portfolios

    16 of 16 portfolios

    Mean Portfolio Return

    vs S&P 500

    +19.0%

    Top portfolio winning +70.3% vs S&P 500

    Signal strength

    Score→return slope, avg across weeks

    0.0002

    Slope > 0 in 50% of 28 weeks · latest -0.0059

    Model overview

    ProviderOpenAI
    ModelN/A
    UniverseNASDAQ-100 (all ~100 members)
    Stocks rated per run100
    Rating scale-5 to +5 (integer) + latent rank 0-1
    Data per stockLive web search, last 30 days
    Run frequencyweekly
    Transaction cost15 bps (0.15%) per traded dollar

    Prompt design

    Every stock is evaluated using the same structured prompt. Key instructions:

    • Scores each stock from -5 (very unattractive) to +5 (very attractive) relative to the next ~30 days of expected performance.
    • Uses a single live web search per stock to gather the latest 30 days of news, earnings, guidance, analyst revisions, and market reactions.
    • Graded on a curve against all other Nasdaq-100 members, not rated in isolation.
    • Assigns a continuous latent rank from 0 to 1 as the fine-grained ordinal signal that drives portfolio construction.
    • Maps scores to buy, hold, and sell buckets for transparency; the actual sort is by latent rank.
    • Requires explicit risks per rating, including uncertainty, model error, or conflicting signals.
    • Tracks change from the prior week and explains bucket changes when they happen.

    Research validation

    We track whether the AI's scores actually predict how stocks will perform. Does the AI get lucky, or do its ratings have predictive power?

    Weekly research commentary· Aug 31, 2026

    Still no directional edge; model sorts by magnitude rather than sign.

    Across 28 weekly cross-sections (≈101.2 stocks/week), mean β is essentially zero (mean β=0.000191, t=0.166), so the rank’s directional signal is indistinguishable from noise. The mean absolute β (0.005011) is ~26× the mean β, implying the model sorts by magnitude/conviction, not consistent sign; mean R²=0.0229 is just below the 0.03 threshold. Mean α=0.006175 (t=1.581) is positive but not significant by the |t|≥2 rule.

    Show underlying stats

    Score→return slope · 28 weeks

    Mean slope
    0.0002
    t (mean slope)
    0.17
    Slope > 0 rate
    50%
    sd slope
    0.0061
    Mean |slope|
    0.0050
    Slope range
    [-0.0138, 0.0108]
    |slope| / |mean slope|
    26.2×

    R² diagnostics

    Mean R²
    0.023
    R² range
    [0.000, 0.109]

    α diagnostics (intercept)

    Mean α / wk
    0.0062
    t (mean α)
    1.58
    α > 0 rate
    64%
    sd α
    0.0207

    Sample

    Mean n / wk
    101.2
    Weeks (slope)
    28
    AI-generated summary of weekly cross-sectional regression diagnostics (score→return slope, R², α). Not investment advice.

    Quintile analysis

    Each week all ~100 Nasdaq-100 stocks are sorted by AI-scored rank and split into 5 equal buckets of ~20. Top 20% = Q5, Bottom 20% = Q1. Each row shows that bucket's average forward return.

    Q5 averaged +0.37% more than Q1 per week across 28 weeks

    Average weekly Q5 minus Q1 across all weekly snapshots.

    Top 20%Q5 · highest rank
    +0.98%28w avg
    Upper-middleQ4
    +0.22%28w avg
    Middle 20%Q3
    +0.29%28w avg
    Lower-middleQ2
    +0.83%28w avg
    Bottom 20%Q1 · lowest rank
    +0.61%28w avg

    Signal strength

    Does the AI score actually predict which stocks will do better next week?

    Quick read: Score→return slope tells you if higher AI scores lead to higher next-week returns, R² tells you how strong that relationship is, and Alpha is weekly market backdrop (not AI skill).

    Signal strength: score→return slope

    Good

    0.0002

    Extra next-week return per +1 on the AI score. Positive means the model is working: higher-rated stocks outperform lower-rated ones. (Averaged across all weekly regressions in the backtest.)

    Good: > 0. Strong: > 0.002.

    R²: fit quality

    Good

    0.0229

    AI score explains about 2.3% of cross-stock next-week return differences.

    Meaningful: 0.01–0.05. Exceptional: > 0.05.

    Alpha (α): market backdrop

    Context

    0.0062

    Predicted return at AI score = 0. This mostly reflects weekly market direction.

    Up-market backdrop of about 0.62%. Alpha is context, not AI skill.

    Slope > 0 in 14 of 28 weeks (50%)

    n≈101 stocks/wk across 28 weekly regressions.

    Scientific grounding

    Primary references behind the live cross-sectional rating and portfolio design we ship in production.

    Pelster & Val (2024): “Can ChatGPT assist in picking stocks?”

    Read paper

    Finance Research Letters · Primary reference

    Core idea: Live experiment testing whether ChatGPT-4 with web access can rate S&P 500 stocks on a −5 to +5 relative attractiveness scale and produce ratings that predict future returns.

    Why no backtest: Historical testing is invalid because ChatGPT may have been trained on future data. They run a live forward-only experiment, the same approach we use.

    Setup: S&P 500 universe, ~2 months during the Q2 2023 earnings season. Each stock rated from −5 to +5 on both earnings surprise and relative attractiveness. Web search results (last ~30 days) summarized and fed into the prompt, very similar to our pipeline.

    Why relative scoring matters: Ratings were explicitly framed as cross-sectional: “how attractive is this stock compared to all other S&P 500 stocks?” This is what makes the signal robust. Even during a period when every quintile portfolio had negative absolute returns, the highest-rated stocks still lost less than the lowest-rated ones (spread of +0.07%/day, t‑stat 4.35). The AI couldn't predict market direction, but it could reliably rank which stocks were relatively stronger.

    Key findings:

    • AI attractiveness ratings positively correlate with future stock returns
    • Relative ranking holds even in negative-return markets
    • AI adjusts ratings in response to earnings and news in near real-time
    • Earnings forecasts add signal beyond analyst consensus

    Limitations:

    • Short time period (~2 months)
    • Not a production portfolio: quintile analysis only
    • Not tested over long horizons or different market regimes

    Our alignment:

    • Same live experiment approach, no backtesting
    • Same relative −5 to +5 attractiveness rating scale
    • Same live web search for recent news, earnings, and analyst data
    • Same cross-sectional quintile and OLS regression framework
    • Extended to Nasdaq-100 and automated for continuous weekly execution

    Ko & Lee (2024): “Can ChatGPT improve investment decisions?”

    Read paper

    Finance Research Letters · Portfolio extension

    Core idea: Extended the research from individual stock ratings to building full portfolios. Asked whether ChatGPT can select assets and build diversified portfolios that outperform random selection, across stocks, bonds, commodities, and more.

    Key findings:

    • AI-selected portfolios show statistically better diversification than random selection
    • Portfolios built from AI picks outperform random portfolios
    • AI identifies abstract relationships between assets across different classes
    • Demonstrates AI potential as a co-pilot for portfolio management decisions

    Our alignment:

    • Portfolio from AI-ranked picks (Top 1 to Top 20, configurable)
    • Benchmarked against both cap-weight and equal-weight Nasdaq-100
    • Tracked live and unedited over multiple market conditions

    Scoring

    Each strategy defines an integer score scale. The score reflects relative attractiveness over the strategy's chosen horizon, calibrated across its full universe. The AI is explicitly instructed to avoid defaulting to the midpoint unless information is genuinely mixed. The exact range is published on each strategy's page.

    In addition to the integer score, the AI produces a latent rank: a continuous value between 0 and 1. The portfolio layer sorts by latent rank (highest first). This separation allows the portfolio to capture ordering signal even when two stocks share the same integer score.

    Scores are calibrated relative to other members of the same strategy universe, not in absolute isolation. A high score means the stock looks meaningfully more attractive than most peers available to that strategy right now.

    Why relative scoring matters: Ratings are explicitly cross-sectional: how attractive is this stock compared to the other stocks in the same universe? This is what makes the signal robust. Even during a period when every portfolio in Pelster & Val's live experiment had negative absolute returns, the highest-rated stocks still lost less than the lowest-rated ones by a statistically significant margin. The AI couldn't predict market direction, but it could reliably rank which stocks were relatively stronger. That is the point of relative rather than absolute scoring: predicting whether any single stock will go up or down requires guessing the overall market direction (something nobody can do reliably), but picking out which stocks look stronger compared to their peers is a more tractable problem. In a falling market, every stock might drop, but the highest-ranked ones tend to drop less. In a rising market, they tend to rise more. The goal is not to predict the whole market; it is to rank the opportunity set better than a neutral or random sort.

    What we add beyond the papers: A fully automated, live production system with real-time web search, versioned model portfolios, forward-only performance tracking, transparent cost modeling, and public auditability. No backtests used as marketing. No retroactive edits.

    Reality checks

    Includes trading costs

    Each time we rebalance, we deduct 15 basis points (0.15%) per unit of portfolio turnover. For example, if 30% of the portfolio changes at a given rebalance, the cost is 0.30 × 0.15% = 0.045% deducted from that period's return. This models real-world trading friction.

    No retroactive edits

    Once a week closes, the data is locked. We do not revise history when the model is updated. Each strategy model version is tracked separately.

    Rules-based system

    Every decision is deterministic. Same inputs produce the same outputs. No human discretion, no cherry-picked dates, no post-hoc adjustments.

    Returns shown are pre-tax. Your actual returns will depend on your tax situation and jurisdiction. Tax treatment of investment gains varies by country and individual circumstances.

    Want the methodology notes?

    See the full methodology, portfolio-ranking rules, and scientific grounding.

    Whitepaper

    Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

    On this page

    Strategy modelPerformanceModel overviewPrompt designResearch validationScientific groundingScoringReality checks
    AITrader

    AI-powered stock analysis backed by peer-reviewed research. Fully transparent methodology and performance.

    Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

    Platform

    • Strategy models
    • Whitepaper
    • Pricing & Features
    • Explore Platform

    Resources

    • Roadmap & Changelog
    • Blog
    • Help & Contact

    Company

    • About
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms of Service
    • Disclaimer

    © 2026 AITrader. All rights reserved.

    tryaitrader@gmail.com